How many new ads does one winner pay for?
Most new concepts fail. That's normal, and the winners pay for all of them. Put in your numbers to see how many shots you can afford, and whether your account should be taking more. Takes 60 seconds, no signup.
On this page
Step 1
What is one winning ad worth to you?
After ad spend and delivery costs. Use your last real winner if you have one.
Months it keeps spending before it fatigues.
Step 2
What does one new concept cost you?
Production plus the ad spend it takes to find out it doesn't work.
Step 3
How often does a brand-new angle win?
New angles only, not versions of your current winner. If you don't know, start with 1 in 10.
Your result
36
new concepts paid for by one winner worth $90,000.
You can afford to swing
10
new concepts you need, on average, to find one winner
$25,000
what finding one winner costs you
3.6x
what a winner returns on the cost of finding it
Take the 36 shots one winner pays for, and your odds of landing at least one winner are 98%.
What this means
One winner pays for far more failed concepts than it takes to find it. New angles are the best bet in your account. If most of what your team ships is versions of the current winner, you're leaving the next one on the table.
Timing matters too. You can afford the most new angles while your current winner is healthy. Once it's dying, you're looking for the next one under pressure.
The one hard rule: never 0% new angles. Versions of your winner keep the hit rate up and the account flat.
Knowing you can afford the shots is half of it. The other half is making each one a real shot: a new angle with a script that can actually spend. That's what we do.
Book a call with Low Stress AdWhy your hit rate is the wrong score
Roger Federer won almost 80% of his matches and only 54% of his points. Ad accounts work the same way: a few ads decide the quarter, and most of the rest lose.
When new concepts keep losing to the control, the natural move is to make more versions of the winner. The hit rate goes up, the dashboard looks healthier, and the account stops growing. A rising hit rate usually means you stopped taking real shots.
The three types of ads
Iteration: a new version of a proven winner. High hit rate, limited upside. It extends a winner, it won't find a new one.
Inspiration: an angle or structure that won somewhere else, adapted to your offer. Medium hit rate, medium upside.
Innovation: a brand-new angle nobody in your niche is running. Lowest hit rate, and the only type that finds your next big winner. This calculator is about these.
What the calculator does
It divides what one winner is worth by what one new concept costs. That's how many shots a winner pays for. Then it compares that to how many shots you need, on average, to find one.
If a winner pays for more shots than it takes to find one, new angles are the best bet in your account. If not, the answer isn't fewer new angles. It's cheaper ones.
A concrete example
A coaching business finds that a winning ad brings in $30,000 of profit a month and holds for 3 months. A winner is worth $90,000.
Each new concept costs $2,500 to produce and test. One winner pays for 36 shots. At 1 new angle in 10 winning, finding one costs $25,000, so a winner returns 3.6x what it took to find. That account should be swinging far more than it does.
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FAQ
Isn't a high hit rate a good thing?+
Only if the winners are big. A team that ships mostly versions of its current winner will have a great hit rate and a flat account. The winners that change a quarter come from new angles, and new angles fail most of the time.
What counts as a new concept?+
A new angle or a new belief to shift, not a new hook, actor or edit on the same message. Those are iterations. They're useful, but they won't find your next winner.
Is there an ideal ratio of new angles to iterations?+
No universal one. It depends on what a winner is worth to you and what a failed concept costs, which is exactly what this calculator measures. The only hard rule is never 0% new angles.
Do you store my numbers?+
No. The calculator runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or saved.
What does Low Stress Ad do?+
We're the outside creative team for info, coaching and education businesses: research, angles, scripts, production direction and iteration. You shoot, we handle the rest.